Will The Aviation Industry Recover From The Pandemic?

In a time like this, you need professionals, not bureaucrats who lack knowledge of the sector

- Murali N. Krishnaswamy

The aviation industry, like several other sectors, is facing a crisis in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. With travel restrictions, grounded fleets, benched staff, schedule uncertainties, ticket liabilities, and cash burn, questions are being raised on whether the civil aviation sector can survive the epidemic. Aviation experts Mohan Ranganathan and Jitender Bhargava weigh in on the steps needed for a recovery, in a conversation moderated by Murali N. Krishnaswamy. Edited excerpts:

The International Air Transport Association (IATA)’s Director General and CEO has said that the association, which represents some 290 airlines, or about 82% of global air traffic, is working on a scenario of severe travel restrictions lasting a few months. This could cut industry revenues by a projected $252 billion in 2020. In terms of the bottom line, this is expected to translate into a $39 billion net loss in the second quarter. The industry will also burn about $61 billion in money in the second quarter. This is a dimension beyond anything that the industry has experienced.

Mohan Ranganathan: Even though IATA has projected this only for one year, I would go more by what Singapore Airlines had announced, like when they announced the grounding of 96% of their fleet. You have Changi Airport shutting down one complete terminal for a year, where they have said they don’t expect traffic to grow for a year. And it may extend to the end of the second year. For us in India, it is going to definitely take more than a month even to start. And then it is going to take at least a couple of years to come back to at least 50% of what we were. And that depends on how many airlines survive.