Lack Of Flu Immunity Could Cause Thousands Of Deaths

Fear of up to 60,000 fatalities sparks fresh vaccine warning

- Samuel Lovett

NHS leaders and health officials fear that up to 60,000 people could die from flu this winter, as the government urged people to get vaccinated against the influenza virus as soon as possible.

Cases of coronavirus, flu and other respiratory infections are likely to surge in the months ahead, experts say, culminating in increased hospital admissions and rising pressure on health services across England.

The deputy chief medical officer of England Professor Jonathan Van-Tam said the lack of flu last year made the threat this winter a “significant public health concern”.

A lack of population immunity due to its suppression over the past year by Covid restrictions could contribute to between 15,000 and 60,000 flu deaths, according to modelling from the Academy of Medical Sciences.

A senior government health official warned it was “realistic” the death toll could reach the higher end of that estimate if vaccine coverage against influenza isn’t high enough for the winter.

As part of new targets unveiled today, the NHS is aiming to roll out the flu jab to at least 85 per cent of people aged 65 and over. It also hopes to reach at least 75 per cent of people with underlying health conditions, at least 75 per cent of pregnant women, 70 per cent of eligible children and at least 85 per cent of all health and social care workers.

“Not many people got flu last year because of Covid-19 restrictions, so there isn’t as much natural immunity in our communities as usual,” said Prof Van-Tam. “We will see flu circulate this winter; it might be higher than usual and that makes it a significant public health concern.”