How To Talk To Putin

Without giving him a face-saver, Ukraine-Russia negotiations cannot deliver any peace

- Jane Kinninmont

Since the early days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, representatives of the two countries have engaged in several rounds of talks, most recently in Turkey. But few observers seem optimistic about a breakthrough any time soon, as Russia continues its aggression on the ground. Why this pessimism?

Anegotiated peace settlement becomes possible when the parties to the conflict decide that they can gain more from an agreement than from continuing the fighting. But working this out can take a long time: it depends not only on a willingness and readiness to compromise, but also on adversaries coming to believe that the other side is genuinely willing and ready to compromise too. Usually in the early stages of a conflict when one side talks about a compromise, it mainly means a compromise by the other side.

And all too often, adversaries engage in talks as a distraction, or to look good in front of international or domestic audiences, without serious will to reach an agreement. Early talks between Russia and Ukraine produced tentative agreements on humanitarian corridors, but in some cases Russia fired on civilians as they fled, and in other cases they only offered safe passage if the civilians were willing to go to Russia or its close ally Belarus. This repeats a pattern already seen in Syria; and has been one of the factors that has limited international confidence in the Russia-Ukraine talks.