Hyper-contagious 3rd wave may not display a thick tail

While the decline of the first and the second Covid-19 waves in Mumbai was characterised by a “thick tail”, experts believe that the hyper-contagious Omicron-Covid wave would be different with the daily caseload dropping to between 200 and 300 shortly.

Mumbai: A “thick tail” is a statistical term to describe a graph curve that doesn’t dip for a long time.

In Mumbai, the daily caseload during the first wave of Covud-19, which began in March 2020, didn’t experience a drop below 1,000 till November 2020.

During the second wave of Covid-19, which began in March 2021, the daily tally didn’t drop below 1,000 till the end of June that year. None of the other cities in the country saw such a thick tail, with the daily caseload in national capital New Delhi dropping to a tenth much ahead of Mumbai.