The Way That I Break : A Macro And Bond Update

Mr. Suyash Choudhary has over two decades of experience in Fixed Income. He has a strong track-record covering fixed-income research and fund management. His strength lies in his in-depth understanding of the macroeconomic environment, the ability to anticipate interest rate movements and the ability to identify attractive investment opportunities across market segments.

- Suyash Choudhary

Prior to joining IDFC AMC, Mr. Choudhary was associated with HSBC Asset Management (India) Pvt. Ltd as Head - Fund Management (Fixed Income) where he was responsible for investments of all fixed income funds. Before that, he was also associated with Standard Chartered Asset Management Co. Pvt. Ltd. as Fund Manager and with Deutsche Bank AG, where he was involved in treasury restructuring and credit & market risk modelling as part of DB Consulting Group, Asia Pacific.

Mr. Choudhary holds a Post Graduate Diploma in Management from the Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta and a Bachelor of Arts (Honors) degree in Economics from the University of Delhi.

Although we’d just done a detailed macro and strategy note recently, much has been happening in the world to merit an update. Stress at US regional banks followed up by worries around a large European one have suddenly brought financial contagion prospects front and centre with investors and regulators. This has had dramatic effects on the expected path of monetary tightening as well. We’d done a series of charts in our previous note (https://bandhanmutual.com/article/11911), and a good way to start this commentary is to compare these with where they stand today, just about a week later.

Source: Bloomberg, Bandhan MF Research. Note: Forward interest rates are using tenor based OIS models.

As can be seen above, the expected Fed funds rate as at Dec 23 has fallen by a staggering 170 bps plus over the past week or so.