WE SHOULD NOT JUST CUT-PASTE WHAT ADVANCED ECONOMIES HAVE DONE

Krishnamurthy V. Subramanian has several titles you are free to choose from-the regular 'Mr' to 'Er' for his engineering degree from IIT Kanpur to 'Dr' for his doctorate in financial economics from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, or the one he seems to personally prefer, 'Prof' from his academic days at the Indian School of Business in Hyderabad. Subramanian, however, would brook no argument on India's prospects of becoming a global economic leader by 2047.

- K. SUNIL THOMAS

He does have a little more than an ordinary citizen's stake in it, having been instrumental in formulating the 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' and 'Vocal for Local' restructuring of India's economic policy during his days as the chief economic adviser. He followed this up with the longer-term 'Amrit Kaal 2047' blueprint for India becoming a developed nation.

It is also the foundation for his new book, India @100; Envisioning Tomorrow's Economic Powerhouse (Rupa). Currently executive director at the International Monetary Fund, Subramanian espouses his fervent belief that India is all set to grab this 'once-in-a-few-centuries' opportunity. Excerpts from an interview:

Q You have painted such a rosy picture of India's future in your book, like its GDP touching $55 trillion in 2047.

A. This outcome hinges on whether we can grow at 8 per cent from now on till 2047. Of course, I have portrayed other scenarios as well. Even if we grow at 7 per cent, we will be $40 trillion and, if we grow only at 6 per cent, we will still be $30 trillion.

If some risks manifest it is possible that growth may be lower. Eight per cent is ambitious but achievable especially given the demography we have, the kind of policies that have been implemented over the past 10 years, the public digital infrastructure, the innovation and the entrepreneurship.

Also, anywhere between twothirds to three-quarters of our economy is informal, and informal sector firms are far less productive than formal sector firms. So the emphasis on formalisation that is happening through the public digital infrastructure will be a key driver of productivity improvement.

And for the first time, we have entered the top 40 innovative countries list. So these will drive productivity improvements in the formal sector as well. When you put it all together, there are potential headwinds and potential tailwinds.