Boosting growth, balancing stability

In 2025, macro policies will need to support domestic demand, but without compromising on macrofinancial stability risks

- SONAL VARMA

The year 2024 can be characterized as a "strong start, weaker finish" for India's economy. It started with Goldilocks-like settings, with real gross domestic product (GDP) growth closer to 8 percent and gradually easing inflation. In the last few months, however, policy tradeoffs have worsened, due to a sharper-than-expected slump in GDP growth, higher food inflation, and currency depreciation pressures. As we turn the page, what does 2025 hold in store?

The global backdrop appears challenging: Uncertainty remains high due to Trump 2.0 policies. We expect President-elect Donald Trump to strike fast and hard on imposing tariffs, leading to a pickup in US inflation and just one Fed cut, in March, followed by a pause for the remainder of 2025. China is likely to announce more fiscal stimulus, but this is unlikely to drive a sustainable recovery, given the economy is not in a normal downcycle. These factors could slow global GDP growth to 2.9 percent year-on-year in 2025, down from 3.2 percent in 2024. For India, this implies reduced dependence on exports as a growth engine and increased reliance on domestic demand.

Cycling down on growth: Many believe the surprise slump in GDP growth to 5.4 percent in Q2 FY25 was a one-off, and the economy will bounce back to 6.5-7.0 percent over coming quarters, supported by higher government spending and a rural recovery. This looks difficult.