India's abysmal conviction rate for crime, especially serious crimes (offences that attract seven years' imprisonment or above), could see improvement soon, maybe within the next five years. The reason? The Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita (BNS) that replaced the Indian Penal Code (IPC) in July 2024, now makes forensic investigation of the crime scene mandatory in cases of serious crime. This requirement will likely put more pressure on Indian police, for no case that has a seven-year prison term can go to court now without a forensic report; but it will also dramatically alter the way police currently investigate cases.
Slipshod investigation with little in-house investigative expertise and reliance only on oral or circumstantial evidence in crimes like rape, murder, financial and cyber-crime, has been one reason for low conviction rates. This is about to change, though many are sceptical about the Indian policing system's capacity to handle the challenge.
Dr Keshav Kumar, who recently retired from the Indian Police Service (Gujarat cadre) after an extended stint in the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), where he helmed the creation of a forensics arm, says the facts speak for themselves. "The National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) says the average national conviction rate for serious crime is 37 per cent. In most schools and colleges, the marks you need to pass is 40 per cent. So, currently we're not even making the pass mark level," Kumar says.
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