FY25 GDP growth may slip to four-year low of 6.4%

Falls short of RBI estimate; better showing in agri and manufacturing expected in H2

- ASIT RANJAN MISHRA

Growth in the Indian economy is estimated to slow to a four-year low of 6.4 per cent in FY25, falling short of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) projection of 6.6 per cent, according to the First Advance Estimates of the National Statistics Office (NSO). The figures were released on Tuesday.

This assumes improved performance in agriculture and manufacturing during the second half of the financial year (October-March) compared to 6 per cent growth in the first half (H1) of FY25.

In FY24, gross domestic product (GDP) had grown at 8.2 per cent.

The First Advance Estimates of GDP have incorporated the industrial production data of an additional month (October) as well as some lead indicators until November and December, implicitly assuming 6.7 per cent GDP growth in the second half (H2) this financial year.

Estimated growth in gross value added (GVA) for FY25 is 6.4 per cent, the same as GDP growth, implying that indirect taxes and subsidies may balance each other out.

Sakshi Gupta, principal economist at HDFC Bank, said high-frequency indicators for the December quarter broadly aligned with the NSO's estimates.