India and Vietnam are likely to be the two biggest beneficiarstrategy adopted by international companies to build new manufacturing units outside the People's Republic of China, according to a report by Nomura.
They expect India's exports to rise from $431 billion in 2023 to $835 billion by 2030, a compounded annual rate of growth (CAGR) of 10 per cent. The shift in supply chains away from China has set in motion what economist Kaname Akamatsu called the "wild-geese-flying pattern" of economic growth, where production shifts from the lead goose (advanced nation) to the next flock of geese (developing nations).
China's role in global value chains is changing too, said the research and broking house. It is a lead goose (investor) and most of its investments are in Asean countries. Most investments in India are from the US and developed Asia.
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