MPC holding out, but not for long

Ahead of the October meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), uncertainty ran high on a potential change in rates, policy stance, and economic forecasts, and for good reason.

- SHREYA SODHANI & AMRUTA GHARE

Not only was it the first meeting of the new external members of the MPC - two of whom had not publicly articulated their views - but data also suggested more divergence among market participants. On the other hand, the MPC painted a picture of consensus among members on the balance achieved between growth and inflation.

This balance, termed as "well-poised" growth and inflation by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, and the fact that all six members now see the need to have flexibility to act "in sync with evolving conditions", effectively lays the groundwork for a rate cut, which we think will materialise in December. All six members voted for a change in stance to neutral, a dovish outcome, especially in the context of the internal members of the MPC striking quite a cautious tone on inflation up until the August meeting.