Since Indian OMCs (oil marketing companies) have not reduced retail prices, they enjoy good retail margins, partly offset by inventory losses and weak gross refining margins.
Upstream player ONGC has seen strong buying although the third quarter of the current financial year (3QFY25) is expected to be flat. The PSU will generate higher volumes going forward. Crude oil prices may be more or less stable, with the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)-plus looking to hold a price band of $70-75 per barrel (bbl). ONGC's higher gas volumes will come at a 40 per cent premium to administered pricing mechanism (APM) due to being new well gas (NWG) or high pressure/high temperature (HPHT) gas.
ONGC may see production go up by around 12 per cent over the next three financial years (cumulative). In Q3FY25, net crude realisation adjusted for windfall tax may be lower by $1/bbl quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) at $71-73/bbl (Brent averaged $74.7/bbl in Q3FY25 vs $80.3/bbl in Q2FY25). The removal of windfall tax is positive but impact is minimal in Q3FY25.
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