The success rate of turncoat candidates, the people who contested elections on the ticket of parties different from the ones they had embraced earlier, has been declining over time.
Their strike rate was less than 15 per cent in recent elections compared to an average of nearly 30 per cent since the 1960s, shows an analysis of Lok Sabha numbers from Ashoka University's Trivedi Centre for Political Data. This covers only those who were turncoats in national elections and excludes politicians who may I have contested state elections under a different party.
The strike rate of turncoat politicians hit its peak of 68.9 per cent in the 1977 elections. It was at 14.9 per cent in 2019. The strike rate is the share of turncoat politicians who are successful in a given election.
The dataset identified 195 turncoat candidates across political parties in 2019. They accounted for 2.4 per cent of the over 8,000 candidates contesting elections. Only 29 of the turncoats won.
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