Can Biden's Green Boom Survive Trump's Wrecking Ball?

THE ENERGY TRANSITION sustained an electoral trauma as 2024 drew to a close. The incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump promises to undo at least some of the progress made on decarbonisation under President Joe Biden.

- Bloomberg

But the energy market is its own beast, subject to politics but also beholden to economic, technological, environmental, and international forces. Here are five elements to watch in Year One of Trump Two.

The IRA: Democrats entered 2021 debating how many trillions of dollars of subsidies would feature in a climate bill. Four years later, they brace for how much of the (shrunken) legislation that ultimately passed will survive.

Three things offer them grounds for cautious hope. First, Trump's earlier trifecta, in his first term, didn't deliver a death blow to the Affordable Care Act, a prior GOP bête noire. It's just hard to remove federal benefits once enacted — which leads into the second factor: Cleantech investment and jobs spurred by the Inflation Reduction Act flow overwhelmingly to red districts. Third, Republicans' House majority is razor-thin.