India's Choices When US Confronts China

Security hawks, protectionists, Wall Street finance titans and tech giants will shape Trump's China policy. New Delhi will need to assess the balance of power among them

- Prashant Jha

After having sealed the debate on what to do with China in his first term, and sealed it so decisively that even Joe Biden had to broadly follow his course of action, Donald Trump has reopened the debate on Washington DC's ties with Beijing in his second term.

First a caveat. This is not to underplay the structural rivalry embedded in the United States (US)-China dynamic. A rudimentary glance at the history of the rise of great powers, Washington DC's status as the most powerful player in the international system, and the aspiration of Beijing to emerge as the top dog means that DC and Beijing's interests will collide.

The two countries will clash sometimes politely, sometimes not so politely; sometimes through proxies, sometimes directly; sometimes on esoteric policy issues that will determine the future and sometimes, on old school territorial matters; sometimes overtly, and sometimes covertly.

So the question isn't if the US and China will become best friends (they won't), or that the competition will cease (it won't). The key question is the balance between competitive and cooperative actions that the US undertakes; the depth, breadth, and intensity of the US-China dialogue; the nature of concessions that both tactically make to each other and in what areas, and the broader political signal from DC to its bureaucracy, industry, allies and partners. And it is here that in his first term, Trump sent a signal that China was an adversary. And it is here that there are both diverse schools of thought within the Trump ecosystem this time, and mixed signals from Trump so far.

The first school is represented by Trump's national security appointees who believe Beijing has the intent and capability to attack US interests, it is doing so already, and China is an adversary across theatres and domains and needs to be countered.