India's tiger project is at a fork in the road

India's tiger reserves have done well. But there remains a key question: How many wild tigers can the world's most populous nation sustain?

- Ananda Banerjee

India's tiger count is now revised to 3,682, up from 3,167 announced by the prime minister in April. A rise in tiger numbers to in excess of 3,000 was always on the cards. Indeed, with better protection and conservation planning, tigers are flourishing, but the 6.1% annual population growth figure has to be taken with a pinch of salt.

This is the 5th cycle of tiger estimation since the once-in-four-years countrywide census was revamped with scientific rigour in 2006. And, in each cycle, the tiger population survey area has increased manifold, along with refinements in technique and methodology. We are now counting on a much larger landscape with more cameras on the ground as well as through foot surveys. For example in 2006, there were 28 tiger reserves (plus 10 proposed) compared to the 51 tiger reserves surveyed in 2022. In 2010, there were only 800 camera traps in 10,500 sq km in comparison to 26,838 cameras in 2018 and 32,588 cameras in 2022.