Monsoon to be below normal, says Skymet

Private met forecaster Skymet Weather has forecast "below normal" rainfall during the monsoon season between June and September, attributing the deficiency to a strengthening El Nino phenomenon.

- Jayashree Nandi

Monsoon rainfall, the lifeline of agriculture in many states, is expected to be "below normal" to the tune of 94% (with an error margin of +/-5%) of the long-period average (LPA) of 86.86 cm for the 4-month period.

There is a 40% chance of "below normal" rainfall (seasonal rainfall that is between 90% and 95% of LPA) during the season; 25% chance of normal rainfall (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 and 104% of LPA); 15% chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall between 105 and 110% of LPA); and 0% chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110% of LPA) according to Skymet Weather.

According to Skymet Weather, monsoon rainfall is likely to be 99% of LPA in June; 95% of LPA in July; 92% in August and 90% of LPA in September. LPA is the average rainfall between 1971 and 2020.

According to India's agriculture ministry, 51% of India's farmed area, accounting for 40% of production, is rain-fed, making the monsoon critical. With 47% of the country's population dependant on agriculture for their livelihood (according to this year's Economic Survey), a bountiful monsoon has a direct correlation with a healthy rural economy.

The annual monsoon forecast, therefore, is widely anticipated. Both Skymet and IMD issue multiple forecasts with the April one being the first.

To be sure, Skymet's first monsoon forecasts of monsoon rainfall for the past five years have differed from the actual rainfall by 4-16% of LPA. For instance, the forecaster said monsoon rainfall would be 98% of LPA in 2022 when the actual rainfall was 106%. IMD's recent first forecasts of monsoon have roughly the same accuracy as Skymet's, different from actual rain by 7-13% of LPA since 2018.

IMD follows different categorisations for rainfall measurements in meteorological regions and for all India measurements.