Mughal-era practice behind unclear estimates?

{FOOD OUTPUT} DIVERGENCE IN GOVT, PVT NUMBERS

- Zia Haq

The government's estimate of wheat output from the 2022-23 winter-sown season stands at a record 112 million tonnes. A bumper harvest should have led to falling prices, substantial state-held stocks and loosening trade regulations.

Yet, the world's second-largest wheat grower is battling high cereal inflation for at least 12 months normally a sign of shortages- puzzling policymakers. After a spate of harsh measures to cool prices, the government has now admitted that its production estimates are under dispute.

The grain-trading industry doesn't agree that the government's wheat-output figures are right, pointing out that production this year couldn't have been more than 102-103 million tonnes, which means a gap of nearly 10 million tonnes.

Addressing a meet of the Roller Flour Millers' Federation of India on September 25, food secretary Sanjeev Chopra said the "divergence", referring to the difference in estimates of the government and those of grain traders, needed attention. He acknowledged that such a huge difference in output figures needed to be reconciled and accounted for, for better inflation targeting.

The agriculture ministry largely depends on production data provided by states. Local revenue officials called "patwaris" and district agriculture officials still use outdated "eye estimates" and a revenue department-based system developed the Mughal emperor Akbar nearly 500 years ago to determine productions estimates, a former Union agriculture secretary said, declining to be named.

"Patwaris often don't visit fields, use a visual reference of where it's convenient to go and put out figures based on general feedback from farmers," he said.