Russia-Ukraine war in the chessboard of geopolitics

Last week, the war in Ukraine marked 1,000 days of the bloodiest conflict that Europe has witnessed since the end of the World War II.

- Happymon Jacob

Nearly three years into the war, Russia has the upper hand while Ukraine is undoubtedly on the defensive — this state of play is unlikely to shift anytime soon. Over the past year, Russia's battlefield dominance has been on the ascendance, fuelled by enhanced Russian defence production, Europe's hesitant support for Ukraine and Washington's cautious approach to prevent the conflict from escalating beyond the Ukrainian theatre. While it is true that Western aid allowed Ukraine to hold its ground, it was clearly insufficient for victory. The United States (US) and Europe provided just enough support to help Kyiv continue its war efforts but not enough to win the war (not that winning a war against Russia would have been easy).

This is a textbook example of flawed wartime support: The support should either be adequate to ensure victory or be calibrated in such a way as to achieve a negotiated settlement at the earliest available opportunity. The US and Europe did neither. Such opportunities indeed existed in the conflict — either at the start of the war during the Istanbul negotiations, or last year when Russian military performance looked subpar. Now, with diminishing European aid, a potential shift in US policy, and Russia consolidating gains on the battlefield, Ukraine finds itself increasingly struggling to keep pace. While Ukraine's Western friends were well meaning, they were primarily looking after their own interests, not Ukraine's.