Slow progress of monsoon may hit key crops' yields

The slow progress of the monsoon and the spectre of scanty rains may combine to shrink the production of paddy, corn, and soya bean, even as the clock is ticking for farmers to finish kharif sowing. Lower production tends to drive up prices and limit farm sector growth

- Puja Das

According to the Union agriculture ministry's website, kharif cultivation has so far been across 4.9 million hectares, or just half the area of last year, amid a 42% deficiency in rainfall since 1 June. If rains arrive late, farmers have little time before the sowing window shuts, while insufficient rainfall exacerbates the impact on crop yields.

"Though the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a normal monsoon, timeliness and regional distribution are critical for crop production, price signalling, and shaping inflation expectations. With the rabi harvest entering the market, some respite in the prices of cereal and pulses could be felt in the next 2-3 months," said Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist at Crisil Ltd, a global analytics company. "However, any distortion in rains could bring a reversal of gains in categories experiencing low/easing inflation (vegetables and edible oils), or worse, keep inflation elevated in cereals, which are experiencing double-digit inflation," Joshi added.

While paddy farmers in states with irrigation facilities have begun planting activities, those in West Bengal, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha are still waiting for the monsoon.

"We have not yet been able to start sowing activity as we are waiting for the monsoon rainfall to prepare seedbeds and then cultivate," said Prasanta Kumar Das, a farmer from the rain-fed Belbuni region of West Bengal.