Election economics Why a recovery will probably come too late for Sunak

There had been feverish speculation it would be this week: the drive to Buckingham Palace; the lectern on Downing Street; the prime minister announcing a general election.

- Richard Partington 

Tomorrow is the final day Rishi Sunak could dissolve parliament if he were to send voters to the polls on 2 May, one of the key dates in election watchers' diaries, when local elections are also taking place. But the prime minister ruled out the possibility earlier this month so the waiting game continues.

With opinion polls suggesting the Conservatives are heading for a landslide defeat, a reverse ferret would be a bold move from a prime minister who hasn't had much luck when it comes to rolling the dice. But there are also economic reasons why Sunak might prefer to wait.

After falling into recession at the end of last year, there are clear signs the economy is on the mend. Inflation is falling, private sector activity is picking up and retail sales are relatively resilient. The governor of the Bank of England agrees things are moving in the right direction, in what Sunak has termed Britain's "bounceback" year from Covid and the cost of living crisis. Financial markets expect the Bank of England to begin cutting interest rates from June.