With the candidates deadlocked in the final polls before election day on Tuesday 5 November, just tens of thousands of voters could decide whether world leaders face a US centrist in the vein of Joe Biden or a second term of office for one of the most disruptive American politicians of the last century.
The election comes at a moment when foreign leaders have appealed for American leadership and diplomacy, as Israel's wars in Gaza and Lebanon risk spiralling into a full-scale regional conflict with Iran, Russia's invasion of Ukraine faces further potential escalation with reports of North Korean troops sent to the frontlines, a civil war in Sudan raging for a second year, and warnings of growing trade and military competition between the US and China.
Trump's brand of America First politics has already sown instability among both partners and adversaries; Nato countries say that never before has the US been seen as the "unpredictable ally", a country where instability around elections is the norm and the alliance's long-term plans must be "Trump-proofed".
European diplomats in Washington have expressed dismay with the Biden administration's cautious foreign policy, especially in relation to Ukraine and the White House's failed efforts to conclude a ceasefire in Gaza, while also steeling themselves for the very real possibility of a Trump victory and the instability that would inject into world politics.
"I can't say for sure whether [Trump] would seek a deal with [Vladimir] Putin on day one or whether he would drop a nuclear bomb on Moscow," one European ambassador said. "The truth is that it's a black box and that anyone who tells you that they know what's going on inside [his] administration is lying."
Diese Geschichte stammt aus der October 26, 2024-Ausgabe von The Guardian.
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