Historic result - Magnitude of Selby and Ainsty win takes even Labour by surprise
The Guardian|July 22, 2023
In his pocket, Keir Starmer carries a list of the 150 target seats Labour wants to gain at the next election, most of them from the Conservatives. Before the latest round of byelections, the party needed to take 124 of them to win a majority of just one.
Pippa Crerar Kiran Stacey
Historic result - Magnitude of Selby and Ainsty win takes even Labour by surprise

The fact that Selby and Ainsty is not even on the Labour leader's list shows just what a historic result this is for the opposition, winning its biggest ever byelection victory by overturning a 20,000 Conservative majority.

If the swing of nearly 24 percentage points were repeated nationally, it would lead to a landslide general election victory. Results across all three byelections suggest the national mood has turned against the Tories, and may not return in time for next year's election.

The Tories had predicted all three races would be tough, arguing that governing parties always lose, even though four recent byelections show that is not always the case. But the scale of the swings in Selby and Ainsty and in Somerton and Frome still took many by surprise. John Curtice, a professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, told the BBC yesterday: "The tide is still a long way out for the Conservatives and they still have an awful long way to go before they look as though they might have a chance to retain power."

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