Local elections Results will show depths of Conservatives' troubles

Ata bus depot in Heanor, Derbyshire, Rishi Sunak valiantly rehearsed some of the arguments the Conservatives are preparing to deploy against Keir Starmer and Labour at the local elections in May.

- Rowena Mason , Kiran Stacey & Peter Walker

Starmer is "arrogantly taking the British people for granted", he claimed, and pointed to Birmingham council as an example of how Labour has "effectively bankrupted the largest local authority in Europe".

But the problem for Sunak is that these criticisms are more resonant when levelled at the Tories. They are 20 points behind in the polls amid accusations of being out of touch and having crashed the economy, sending inflation and interest rates soaring under Liz Truss. Launching his party's local election campaign, the prime minister is just six weeks away from a moment of maximum danger for his premiership.

Qualms about Sunak's leadership are rumbling on, with talk of installing Penny Mordaunt or Tom Tugendhat in his place, but those calls may become more public and louder from some Conservative MPs if the party loses key mayoralties in Tees Valley and the West Midlands on 2 May.

Few political experts expect anything other than a resounding victory for Labour in the 107 council contests on that date, but the possibility of Starmer's party getting a clean sweep when it comes to mayoral polls in London and 10 other areas is what is really causing jitters in Conservative party headquarters.

Tony Travers, a professor of government at LSE and an expert on local politics, said the West Midlands and Tees Valley races were difficult to call. Andy Street, the incumbent Tory mayor of the West Midlands, had a narrow 2021 victory margin over Labour that was less than the subsequent swing in national polling, but Street had been "politically shrewd" in plotting a distinct course from the national party and could thus hang on, Travers said.

In contrast, while Ben Houchen took nearly 73% of the vote in Tees Valley last time, he could experience a collapse in Tory support in the red wall, Travers said, noting a poll last month that predicted a Labour victory.