Labour has begun an intense debate about the lessons it must learn from the defeat of its sister party, the Democrats, in the US election. Although UK political advisers, obsessed with American politics, overdo the parallels, some lessons are obvious.
A political elite must not fight on identity politics that might seem important to it, but on the issues that matter most to millions of voters. In the US, living standards and illegal immigration were critical, and they will be at the next UK election, which is already making some Labour backbenchers jittery. Why?
The Bank of England said on Thursday that Rachel Reeves’s Budget will mean a small rise in inflation, while her increase in employers’ national insurance contributions will hold down wages. Meanwhile, Keir Starmer’s tough talk on the small boat crossings has not yet got the numbers down. To the UK list, we can add the NHS – the symbol of Labour’s pledge to improve public services, on which it will be judged at the next general election.
Labour ministers argue that they are already on the right page with their emphasis on the “working people” – a demographic that was won over by Donald Trump. Labour might struggle to define precisely who these people are, but at least is trying to appeal to them. The Budget largely spared them the pain inflicted on better-off groups, while raising the national minimum wage and freezing fuel duty.
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