The latest, from YouGov, carried out in the days just before the Tory conference opened in Birmingham, has her winning by the "cursed ratio" - the 52-48 per cent split that decided the EU referendum. This is a narrower lead than the 59-41 per cent advantage she enjoyed in the previous YouGov poll in August (I am adjusting the figures to exclude don't knows). She was also ahead, by 60-40 per cent, in the Conservative Home survey at the start of September. And in a Techne poll of party members in July (59-41 per cent again).
The only poll of party members that put Jenrick ahead, by 51-49 per cent, was one by JL Partners in August. Yet punters in the betting markets have had Jenrick as the favourite for several weeks.
What is going on?
Diese Geschichte stammt aus der October 02, 2024-Ausgabe von The Independent.
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