Analysts see inflation picking up in November

Headline inflation likely quickened for a second straight month in November, mainly due to costlier food items amid damage brought by several typhoons, analysts said.

-  Keisha Ta-asan

Sarah Tan, an economist at Moody's Analytics, said inflation may have risen to 2.5 percent in November from 2.3 percent in October due to higher food prices.

If realized, November inflation would be the highest in three months or since the 3.3 percent in August. The Philippine Statistics Authority will release inflation data on Dec. 5.

"Agricultural crops were damaged when the Philippines experienced six tropical storms from late October through November, leading to widespread flooding," Tan said.

"Among them, destruction to rice crops was most severe as the country's largest rice-producing regions, Cagayan Valley and Central Luzon, were heavily impacted by the rain- and landfalls."

She also said that with domestic rice production declining, rice imports are expected to compensate for that gap. However, the lower rice tariffs will provide minimal relief against the surge in overall food inflation.

Jun Neri, senior vice president and lead economist at BPI, likewise expects inflation to hit 2.5 percent in November due to supply challenges caused by bad weather.

"Weekly data on vegetable prices appear to have been affected by typhoons as month-on-month increases rose faster than October's," he said.