Economists see Singapore GDP growth slowing to 2.6% in 2025: MAS survey

Geopolitical tensions top downside risks with overall inflation forecast to fall

- Ovais Subhani

Private-sector economists see Singapore's economy expanding by 2.6 per cent in 2025, with geopolitical tensions, including from higher tariffs, topping downside risks.

It will be a slowdown from the 3.6 per cent growth they now expect in 2024, according to a quarterly survey of professional forecasters by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) released on Dec 11.

Both the 2025 and 2024 forecasts are still higher than what the economists had predicted in the September survey. They had projected gross domestic product (GDP) to expand by 2.5 per cent in 2025 and 2.6 per cent in 2024.

In November, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) upgraded its 2024 growth outlook to "around 3.5 per cent" - up from an earlier forecast of 2 per cent to 3 per cent.

At the same time, MTI said it expected economic growth to slow to 1 per cent to 3 per cent in 2025.

MTI's 2025 estimate was based mainly on cyclical moderation of GDP growth in the US economy that has been growing much faster than its developed market peers.

China's economy was also likely to slow down on weaker exports, the ministry said.

MTI had also flagged the risk of higher uncertainty over US economic policies after the election of Donald Trump in the November polls.