How Trump is already shaping Ukraine's future – and it isn't looking good

Trump's choice of national security adviser and his son's social media post are indicators of what lies ahead.

- Jonathan Eyal

Did US President-elect Donald Trump just telephone Mr. Vladimir Putin, the Russian leader, to discuss an end to the war in Ukraine?

Yes, if you believe US sources, including those available in The Washington Post. But no if you listen to what the Russian authorities are saying. "Telephone call? What telephone call?" asked a surprised Mr. Dmitry Peskov, President Putin's chief spokesman.

This "did-he-didn't-he" episode perfectly illustrates the high state of nervousness and sheer confusion that has gripped Europe since Trump won the US election.

It's not that the Europeans were surprised by Trump's electoral success; many governments predicted it. Instead, Trump's electoral promise to end the war in Ukraine—Europe's most extensive and bloodiest conflict since World War II—carries with it the risk of tearing up all the continent's security arrangements without the US President-elect even appearing to realize it.

And—galling still for the Europeans—most of the serious decisions about their future could be taken by Trump and his closest personal advisers well before "The Donald" steps back into the White House on Jan. 20, 2025. A more frustrating and more dangerous prospect for Europe can hardly be envisaged.

Unsurprisingly, Europe frets about every Trump phone call, whether imaginary or real.

UKRAINE IN TRUMP'S EYES

Although more by accident than design, Ukraine has haunted Trump's political career. Russia's initial invasion of Ukraine took place in 2014, well before Trump embarked on his first presidential term. But because he was accused of winning the 2016 US election with the help of Russia's intelligence services, Trump initially believed that he could dispel such accusations by standing up to Russia in Ukraine. So, he reversed a ban imposed by Mr. Barack Obama, his predecessor, and authorized the first substantial delivery of US weapons to Ukraine.