India's exit poll sector faces credibility test after record election

As the last phase of India's marathon election cludes on June 1, think-tanks and polling agencies are preparing to release a flurry of exit poll results to try to project the winner and the extent of the victory.

- Rohini Mohan

Exit polls, conducted immediately after voting ends, are the penultimate spectacle before the Election Commission announces the results on June 4.

This election the largest in India's history will test the credibility of the highly competitive exit poll industry, which has grown rapidly, fuelled by tie-ups with media groups and breathless political discussions with TV pundits.

"You may ask, why spend time and money on exit polls when results are (out) in just three days, but the fact is that across the world, there is huge interest in knowing who might be winning before we know who has won," said Mr Rajdeep Sardesai, a senior anchor at English news channel India Today.

At least a dozen organisations have been conducting exit polls to understand voter behaviour and choices in the world's largest democracy.

Since April 19, Indians have been voting in national parliamentary elections in a seven-phase election for 543 constituencies. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is seeking a third term in the Lok Sabha, or Lower House of Parliament.

While pre-poll surveys showed Mr Modi remains popular, pollsters now face the challenge of assessing what low voter turnout, heatwave conditions, and the growing frequency of religiously laced comments from the Prime Minister mean for election results.

While voting is under way, India's Election Commission does not allow exit polls to be held, and their results published or publicised. So pollsters begin their work 30 minutes after the last vote is cast in every phase across the country.