Western govts caught unprepared by lengthy war in Ukraine

International military backing, political admiration for resistance wearing thin

- Jonathan Eyal

LONDON - When Russian troops launched their all-out invasion of Ukraine on Feb 24, 2022, nobody believed that Ukraine could last for more than just a few weeks.

Yet, two years on, Ukraine remains independent and the government of President Volodymyr Zelensky, which Russia was so determined to overthrow, not only survived intact but has also not budged from Kyiv, the capital.

However, as the war enters its third year, international military backing and political admiration for Ukraine's brave resistance are wearing thin.

Supplying weapons to Ukraine is now a profoundly divisive party-political matter in the United States, a skirmish that has E almost paralysed Congress.

And although most Europeans still root for Ukraine to win the war, an extensive public opinion survey released on Feb 21 by the European Council on Foreign E Relations (ECFR), a think-tank, E indicates that barely 10 per cent of Europe's voters believe that Ukraine can still defeat Russia.

Meanwhile, on the battlefield, Ukraine's armed forces are now in a slow but clear retreat.

It is too early to conclude that it has lost the war, but it is becoming clear that if Ukraine does not get massive fresh deliveries of weapons in the next few months, the country will struggle to continue the war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose obsession with seizing Ukraine is a critical driver E in this conflict, may well emerge triumphant.

What went wrong with the E successful Western strategy of supporting Ukraine? Just about everything.

First, it is worth recalling that while the US intelligence services tracked Russia's invasion preparations right from the beginning and accurately predicted even the precise day of the Russian attack, the last thing Western governments expected was that they would have to supply weapons to Ukraine for a lengthy war.