Donald Trump likely to take a hard line on China

As US President-elect Donald Trump prepares for his return to the White House, it's clear that a more hardline China policy is coming-but the shape that it will take and its limits are not yet apparent.

There are some big questions and divisions already emerging in the circles around Trump.

The second Trump administration must ask: Can its China policy be reconciled with its domestic economic needs? Tariffs are the most certain policy, and it's possible that trade hawk Robert Lighthizer will return as US trade representative. Some Republican advisors aspire to total decoupling from China, which is the largest supplier of goods to the United States and its third-largest buyer.

Trump's oft-stated preference for tariffs on China set at 60% may lead to significant inflation and lead the United States to turn to cheaper manufacturing alternatives in countries such as Indonesia or Vietnam. That might ease the blow, though even so-called friend-shoring would run up against the 10-20% tariffs Trump says he wants to apply to all countries, including allies.

Sticker shock had painful consequences for Democrats in recent years, and the same may apply for Republicans once in power, especially if Americans simultaneously lose access to low-cost goods through Chinese apps such as Temu and Shein.