Putin's Nuclear Bluff Has Worked, It Has Lessons For India

Begin by precisely assessing the disposition of Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons

- Jayant Prasad

Foreign minister S Jaishankar’s bilateral visit to Moscow takes place amidst a heightened global perception of Russia’s nuclear threat. But the status of Russian nuclear forces on the ground has remained unaltered since President Putin ordered defence minister Sergei Shoigu to put the country’s deterrence forces on high combat alert in February. There have really been no signs of a higher state of nuclear readiness. In any case, Putin and the Russian foreign office have since disavowed possible nuclear weapons use.

Even the speculations have not been about the possible use of Russian strategic arsenal but remained restricted to tactical nuclear weapons. Limited use of TNWs is unlikely to change conventional battle outcomes unless these are used in large numbers, which is impractical as it would adversely affect the user’s forces too and contaminate the battlefield.

What has Putin’s early posturing delivered?

His warning of unpredictable consequences of outside intervention in Ukraine did keep the US and Nato at bay.

• US and Nato did not put their forces on the ground in Ukraine or respond positively to President Zelenskyy’s appeal to enforce a no-fly-zone over Ukraine.

• Each nuclear-weapon state is now engaged in upgrading its nuclear weapons and delivery systems.

• Non-nuclear weapon states have been motivated to acquire nuclear weapons.