Azerbaijan Confronts Russia Over Crash

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Azerbaijan's president accused Russia of trying to cover up its role in a plane crash that killed 38 people, delivering a harsh condemnation that signaled a reversal of the power dynamics that long saw Moscow hold sway over its former Soviet republics.

President Ilham Aliyev said Sunday that Azerbaijan had demanded that Russia take responsibility for the crash, provide compensation for the country and victims' families, and bring those guilty of downing the plane to justice.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a Saturday phone call, apologized to the Azeri leader for the "tragic incident" that occurred in Russian airspace, but he stopped short of taking responsibility. On Sunday, Aliyev said the apology hadn't been enough. The two spoke again on Sunday.

The recriminations represent one of the biggest confrontations between Russia and the leaders in former Soviet territories, once treated as little more than subordinates in its strategic backyard.

The dispute illustrates Moscow's waning power and influence in the region after its invasion of Ukraine.

Aliyev's remarks on Sunday lacked the deference that has long governed Azerbaijan's relations with Russia. He said that the crash was caused by Russian electronic interference and fire from the ground and that Russian authorities' explanations-which faulted a flock of birds and an exploding gas cylinder-were "foolish and dishonest."

"This clearly showed that the Russian side wanted to cover up the issue, and of course, this is something no one can be proud of," Aliyev said.

Preliminary results of Azerbaijan's investigation into the crash indicated that a missile from a Russian air-defense system hit the Embraer 190 aircraft and that Russian authorities diverted it out of Russian airspace, people briefed on the matter said. On Sunday, Aliyev said one question is whether the damaged plane was intentionally diverted by Russia in the hopes that it would simply fall into the Caspian Sea.

The Azeri leader praised the pilots, who battled for more than an hour to maintain speed and altitude despite what aviation experts said were likely punctures in the vertical stabilizer, with the aircraft rising and falling as much as 8,000 feet numerous times. The plane crashed in the city of Aktau in western Kazakhstan; 29 people on the flight survived.

While Western leaders have long taken a more confrontational approach with Moscow, countries closer-and more vulnerable to Russia have followed a pragmatic approach, trying to build ties with other regional and global powers without angering Moscow. The furor in Azerbaijan over the incident lays bare Russia's diminished influence.

Over the past decade, Russia has sought a bigger role in the world, making inroads into the Middle East and the Arctic while trying to keep a hold on territories it considered closer strategic priorities in the South Caucasus-Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia as well as Central Asia, between Russia and China.

Russia is still a significant preoccupation for U.S. and European policymakers, who are trying to keep the Ukraine conflict from spreading as they accuse the Kremlin of a policy of sabotage and espionage against the West.

Fissures in Russia's power projects are growing with the Kremlin's increased focus on Ukraine. Russia's decision to withhold aid from former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who fled Damascus to Moscow this month, showed the limits of Russia's military power outside Ukraine. That could lead to the loss of Russia's military bases in Syria, which it used to project authority into the Mediterranean and Africa.

The row with Azerbaijan shows Moscow's loss of influence closer to home. There Russia had long held the upper hand as a result of historical ties, Moscow's former role as the world's second-largest arms exporter, and the countries' shared energy and transport infrastructure. Moscow even tried to build defense alliances and economic partnerships out of the ashes of the Soviet Union.

With Moscow facing a drain on its military and economic clout, the levers of control are slipping away.

"Friendship and personal chemistry between autocrats always disappears in a conflict," said Andrei Kolesnikov, a political analyst based in Moscow.

Russia had long played its former Soviet republics against one another in an attempt to maintain leverage.

That strategy faltered last year when Azerbaijan launched a military offensive on NagornoKarabakh, a territory within Azerbaijan long ruled by ethnic Armenians. Russian peacekeepers failed to stop the violence; two were killed.

Analysts say their inaction was partly because of the limits of Moscow's ability to intervene as well as the Kremlin's decision to punish Armenia for its increasingly pro-Western stance. U.S. soldiers have carried out military exercises with troops in Armenia, including a month before Azerbaijan's takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh last year.

With its relations with Armenia in tatters and its future with Azerbaijan in question, Moscow is under threat of losing more of its influence in the South Caucasus. In neighboring Georgia, people have protested on the streets of Tbilisi over what they say is their government's growing proximity to Russia.

More than anything, Turkey's increasing power in the region has altered the status quo. That goes especially for Azerbaijan, which shares ethnic, linguistic and historical ties with the country. Turkey's support in the Karabakh war last year was crucial to Azerbaijan's victory. Ankara's importance for Russia has increased as Moscow has sought to evade Western sanctions.

"Losing Azerbaijan-or pushing it toward enmityposes a significant risk for Russia, as it could also damage Moscow's relationship with Turkey," said Zaur Shiriyev, a Baku-based nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, who focuses on the region.