Taiwan Slowly Gets Its U.S. Arms

TAIPEI-Taiwan hailed the arrival of its first state-of-theart American tanks last week, celebrating what it described as "the world's greatest war machine." Less prominently mentioned was the long wait that preceded the arrival of the 38 M1A2 Abrams tanks: Taiwan placed the order in June 2019, during President-elect Donald Trump's first term.

The Taiwanese military was to receive its first batch in 2022, replacing Vietnam Warera Patton tanks. But the U.S. missed that timeline by two years as the Covid-19 pandemic and new wars in Ukraine and the Middle East strained its defense industry.

Other delayed deliveries for Taiwan include F-16V jet fighters and TOW antitank missiles Now, as Trump prepares to return to the White House, Western and Taiwanese defense analysts say the backlog is likely to clear up somewhat.

For decades, Washington has been Taipei's most important military backer, supplying weapons to deter and defend against a potential attack by China. Beijing claims the island as its territory and hasn't ruled out using force to take it.

Beijing regularly protests announcements of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan as interference in its sovereign affairs. But what has proven more effective in keeping advanced American weaponry out of Taiwanese hands has been U.S. supply bottlenecks.

The value of Taiwan's paidfor-but-undelivered weapon systems tops $20 billion, according to Eric Gomez, a defense analyst at the Washington-based Cato Institute, though he adds, "This number should start coming down." In addition to the Abrams tanks, Taiwan last month received its first batch of High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or Himars. The highprecision rocket system, used to great effect by Ukraine in its war against Russia, puts targets along China's southeastern coastline within range.

Their arrival brought Gomez's November estimate down to $21.95 billion, from October's $22.39 billion, before the tanks' arrival last week. And Gomez expects a number of large sales to be completed by the end of 2026.

By the end of this year, a shipment of TOW-2B antitank missiles is expected to arrive, and Taiwan's air force says it is optimistic that it will receive the F-16V jet fighters by 2026.

The sale of the TOW missiles was approved in 2015 under then-President Barack Obama, while the Trump administration agreed to sell 108 Abrams tanks and 66 F-16V jet fighters in 2019, followed by the Himars systems in 2020.

The remaining 70 Abrams tanks are expected to arrive by 2026.

A spokesman for the Pentagon said it is working closely with defense contractors to expand production capacity and accelerate delivery. "Taiwan is prioritized to the greatest extent possible," Maj.

Pete Nguyen wrote in response to questions, adding that long waits for delivery are a global challenge.

During the election campaign, Trump warned that Taiwan would have to significantly increase its military spending and not rely entirely on U.S. military support.

Trump has also at times emphasized his close ties to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, while highlighting Taiwan's proximity to the Chinese mainland and its great distance from the U.S.

On the other hand, Trump has picked a prominent China hawks for his national-security team, including Sen.

Marco Rubio for secretary of state and Rep. Mike Waltz for national security adviser.

"Taiwan should take this chance to upgrade some of the outdated platforms in its military," said Su Tzu-yun, a Taipei-based security expert with the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, which is backed by Taiwan's military.

Taiwanese officials have talked up their commitment to improving their military capabilities. But whatever Taiwan decides to splurge on, any new orders "would jack up the backlog number right back way higher to where it was before," said Gomez of the Cato Institute.

"There's this question of, like, do you think Taiwan buys political goodwill or does it actually buy useful military capabilities that could be delivered fast?" he adds.

The new tanks, analysts say, check both boxes, sending a message that Taiwan is willing to pay up to improve its defenses, while also boosting its capabilities.

The Taiwanese military offered the vehicles a big welcome. They also feature prominently in the Defense Ministry's calendar for the coming year, hailed as "the world's strongest tank!!"