Much of the forecasting variation seems to be rooted in cool Canadian air that had weakened a batch of sunny weather over the East Coast. That weakening would allow Ian to turn eastward to Southwest Florida instead of north and west to the Panhandle hundreds of miles away.
The major American computer forecast model -- one of several used by forecasters -- missed that and the error was “critical,” a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration postmortem of computer forecast models determined.
“It’s pretty clear that error is very consequential,” said former NOAA chief scientist Ryan Maue, now a private meteorologist who wasn’t part of NOAA’s postmortem.
Still, meteorologists didn’t miss overall with their official Hurricane Ian forecast. Ian’s eventual southwestern Florida landfall was always within the “cone of uncertainty” of the National Hurricane Center’s forecast track, although at times it was on the farthest edge.
But it wasn’t that simple. Computer forecast models, which weeks earlier had agreed on where Hurricane Fiona was going, were hundreds of miles apart as Ian chugged through the Caribbean.
The normally reliable American computer model, which had performed better than any other model in 2021 and was doing well earlier in the year, kept forecasting a Florida Panhandle landfall while the European model -- long a favorite of many meteorologists — and the British simulation were pointing to Tampa or farther south.
Diese Geschichte stammt aus der December 31, 2022-Ausgabe von Techlife News.
Starten Sie Ihre 7-tägige kostenlose Testversion von Magzter GOLD, um auf Tausende kuratierte Premium-Storys sowie über 8.000 Zeitschriften und Zeitungen zuzugreifen.
Bereits Abonnent ? Anmelden
Diese Geschichte stammt aus der December 31, 2022-Ausgabe von Techlife News.
Starten Sie Ihre 7-tägige kostenlose Testversion von Magzter GOLD, um auf Tausende kuratierte Premium-Storys sowie über 8.000 Zeitschriften und Zeitungen zuzugreifen.
Bereits Abonnent? Anmelden
OFFSHORE WIND INDUSTRY SAYS 'MISINFORMATION' FROM FOES IS A STRONG HEADWIND IT MUST FIGHT
The U.S offshore wind energy industry says it needs to fight back against disinformation being spread by opponents of wind farms.
HOW TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM SCAMMERS OFFERING FAKE JOBS
Between finding openings, sending out your resume and interviewing, looking for a job is tough. Now a growing trend of scammers impersonating recruiters is making it even harder.
HOW TO PREPARE YOUR BODY AND MIND FOR THE END OF DAYLIGHT SAVING TIME
The good news: You will get a glorious extra hour of sleep. The bad: It’ll be dark as a pocket by late afternoon for the next few months in the U.S.
IN 'IBELIN' AND 'GRAND THEFT HAMLET,' VIDEO GAME REALMS DRAW FILMMAKERS WITH VIRTUAL CAMERAS
Film productions often wrestle with shifts in the weather, the threat of the crew going into overtime or the fading of a day’s light. Less common are concerns over the cast slipping off the top of a blimp.
RESEARCHERS SAY AN AI-POWERED TRANSCRIPTION TOOL USED IN HOSPITALS INVENTS THINGS NO ONE EVER SAID
Tech behemoth OpenAI has touted its artificial intelligence-powered transcription tool Whisper as having near “human level robustness and accuracy.”
WORLD SERIES GAME 3 AVERAGES 13.64 MILLION.BEATS 'MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL'
The World Series beat “Monday Night Football” in the battle for television viewers.
FITNESS APP STRAVA GIVES AWAY LOCATION OF BIDEN, TRUMP AND OTHER LEADERS, FRENCH NEWSPAPER SAYS
An investigation by French newspaper Le Monde found that the highly confidential movements of U.S. President Joe Biden, presidential rivals Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, and other world leaders can be easily tracked online through a fitness app that their bodyguards use.
GOOGLE'S MONEYMAKING MACHINE STILL PUMPING OUT MASSIVE PROFITS DESPITE MULTIPLE THREATS
Google is still thriving while the company navigates through a pivotal shift to artificial intelligence and battles regulators trying to topple its internet empire.
ROBERT DOWNEY JR. SAYS HE 'INTENDS TO SUE' ALL FUTURE EXECUTIVES WHO USE HIS AI REPLICA
Robert Downey Jr. doesn’t think Marvel executives would ever recreate his portrayal of Tony Stark using artificial intelligence. But if they did, he would lawyer up — even posthumously.
APPLE LAUNCHES THE IPHONE INTO THE AI ERA WITH FREE SOFTWARE UPDATE
Apple is releasing a free software update that will inject its first dose of artificial intelligence into its iPhone 16 lineup as the trendsetting company tries to catch up with technology’s latest craze.