The Commerce Department reported that retail sales jumped 1% from June to July, the biggest such increase since January 2023, after having declined slightly the previous month. Auto dealers, electronics and appliance stores and grocery stores all reported strong sales gains.
The July retail sales data provided reassurance that the U.S. economy, while slowing under the pressure of high interest rates, remains resilient. It showed that America's consumers, the primary driver of economic growth, are still willing to spend.
The prospect of a still-growing economy is likely to be promoted by Vice President Kamala Harris' presidential campaign, which is preparing to roll out policies to ban "price gouging" on groceries. Her opponent, former President Donald Trump slammed the economic record of the Biden-Harris administration, though he wildly inflated cost increases on food and monthly mortgage payments.
Other economic data released last week was also mostly positive, including a report on first-time applications for unemployment benefits. The figures show that businesses are mainly holding onto their workers and not increasing layoffs.
With Americans spending more, economists at Morgan Stanley have boosted their forecast for growth in the July-September quarter to a 2.3% annual rate, from an earlier estimate of 2.1%. The economy expanded at a healthy 2.8% rate in the April-June quarter.
All told, the latest data is consistent with an economy that is headed toward a "soft landing," in which the Federal Reserve raises interest rates enough to cool inflation but not so much as to cause a recession.
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