The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) yesterday cut the repo rate by only 25 basis points, despite economists calling for a cut of 50 basis points. After Statistics SA announced the inflation rate for October decreased by a full percent in October from September, economists said there are now no inflation expectations to justify not cutting the repo rate by 50 basis points. Lesetja Kganyago, Sarb governor announced the MPC"s decision yesterday. The 25 basis points cut brings the repo rate to 7.75% and prime lending rate to 11.25%. He said the global macroeconomic context has become more challenging since the previous MPC meeting in September, when the repo rate was also cut by 25 basis points. "The dollar has appreciated against most currencies, including the rand," said Kganyago. "Longer-term interest rates have increased in the US and across the globe. Short-term rate expectations have likewise shifted up." In general, monetary policy in major economies remains restrictive and headline inflation has slowed, he added. "While this has provided some room for major central banks to ease rates further over the past two months, new inflation pressures and heightened uncertainty suggest diminished policy space. With underlying inflation still above target in several economies, there are risks of policy reversals."Turning to South Africa, Kganyago said economic growth recovery continues after a weak economic performance in 2023 and the first half of 2024."In the near term, we expect output to benefit from a variety of tailwinds, including lower inflation, higher disposable income and extra spending from pension withdrawals via the new two-pot retirement system," he said."It is unclear how much this will boost the third-quarter growth numbers, which are due in a few weeks. The data flow has been mixed lately, with some indicators disappointing, while others have been positive. For instance, recent manufacturing data was subdued, but mining was stronger. Encouragingly, the most recent labour force survey showed relatively large and broad-based job gains and lower unemployment."Kganyago said the Sarb still expects a sustained improvement in growth over the medium term as reforms take effect."Our forecast now extends out to 2027 - and we see growth reaching 2% in that year," he said.The risks to the growth outlook are assessed to be balanced, he said."Given mixed data outcomes, it is possible that near-term growth could fall short of current projections. At the same time, growth could be higher from next year, given ongoing reforms."These include structural reforms, especially in the network sectors, such as electricity and transport.Furthermore, the recent positive outlook on South Africa's credit rating from Standard &amp; Poor's points to an improving country risk premium. These factors suggest upside risks to the longer-term growth forecast."Moving to consumer prices, Kganyago admitted that headline inflation dipped below the Sarb target range.Goods prices have slowed more than those for services, which reflects the benefits of a stronger exchange rate and a lower oil price, compared to last year," he said.These temporary supply shocks are likely to keep inflation below 4% until mid-2025."He said thereafter the Sarb expects inflation to increase modestly compared to its September projections, reaching 4.6% from late 2025, rather than 4.4%, primarily due to a higher electricity price assumption.The risks to the inflation outlook were assessed as balanced, Kganyago said."In the near term, inflation appears well contained. However, the medium-term outlook is highly uncertain, with material upside risks. These include higher prices for food, electricity and water, as well as insurance premiums and wage settlements."Against this backdrop, he said, the MPC decided to reduce the repo rate by 25 basis points.The MPC agreed that reducing the level of policy restrictiveness is still consistent with achieving the inflation target."

Slight reprieve for consumers

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