Keeping that in mind, let’s take a look at air cargo forecasts. One such — through the double exponential smoothing (DES) method – has predicted that Indian air cargo volumes till 2020 would rise to 3.59 mn tonnes by the end of the year FY 2019-20. Another projection, this time made through trend analysis, reflected a figure of 2.23 mn tonnes.
Indian aircargo tonnage, however, passed around 3.70 mn tonnes in financial year 2019, a 7 per cent growth rate. It is pertinent to note that our industry should grow by at least 8 per cent a year to achieve the MOCA goal of 10 mn tonnes by 2030. What is, however, worrying is the fact that during the first seven months of the fiscal (April-October), exports contracted 2.2 per cent, while imports shrank 8.4 per cent leading to a trade deficit of $95 bn.
Air cargo slipped into the reverse gear through the year and there are — as yet — no indications of it improving. Nor are there any signs of increase in demand, though it’s early to predict if the first quarter of 2020 will see the demand growing.
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