THE CRYSTAL SUPERBALL
Entrepreneur magazine|January 2022
Want to know the future? Meet an elite team of forecasters who have turned future-gazing into a science (and you can even steal a few of their tricks).
LIZ BRODY
THE CRYSTAL SUPERBALL
Before January 1, 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Olympics?
I am in a virtual workshop that will test my abilities to forecast the future, and I have 10 seconds to answer. I’m scanning my brain. (Simone Biles, not relevant. Moscow, 1980, yes. Uyghurs?) But time’s up. I guess 20 percent. Then it’s on to the next questions: What is the probability the U.S. will regulate crypto-currencies on the stock market by January 2023? Will China attempt to take Taiwan over the next five years? How big is the surface area of the Mediterranean Sea in square kilometers?

“I bet you didn’t wake up thinking you had to answer that question today,” says Warren Hatch, who is co-leading this workshop.

There are about 12 of us taking this training, including a guy from the Department of Defense. Over the next two days, we scratch our heads, trade bits of insight, try to shed our cognitive biases (more on that later), and see if we have the chops for predicting things professionally. I am definitely out, but I suspect a couple in this group qualify. Those who do will be a step closer to gaining an elite, though geeky, kind of status: It’s called a “superforecaster.” And if you are one, you can join the global network of über predictors, the best of the best, who work with the company that arranged this workshop in the first place. It is called Good Judgment. Hatch is its CEO.

Esta historia es de la edición January 2022 de Entrepreneur magazine.

Comience su prueba gratuita de Magzter GOLD de 7 días para acceder a miles de historias premium seleccionadas y a más de 9,000 revistas y periódicos.

Esta historia es de la edición January 2022 de Entrepreneur magazine.

Comience su prueba gratuita de Magzter GOLD de 7 días para acceder a miles de historias premium seleccionadas y a más de 9,000 revistas y periódicos.

MÁS HISTORIAS DE ENTREPRENEUR MAGAZINEVer todo
How To Ask Family For Money
Entrepreneur magazine

How To Ask Family For Money

Your friends-and-family fundraising round doesn't have to be scary and awkward. Here's advice from one of the world's leading investors.

time-read
3 minutos  |
November 2024
Data Breach Drama: When Trust Turns Costly In A Digital Age
Entrepreneur magazine

Data Breach Drama: When Trust Turns Costly In A Digital Age

Amid data breaches surges, Indian businesses are prone to financial and reputational fallout. Can cyber insurance emerge as a safeguard?

time-read
4 minutos  |
November 2024
THE TERRAIN TAMER
Entrepreneur magazine

THE TERRAIN TAMER

Spearheading a California-based, Series D SaaS company is no easy feat. It requires a blend of ownership, innovation, and the ability to handle stress. But Anand Jain, co-founder and chief product officer of Clever Tap, finds his calm by escaping to rough terrain whenever he gets the chance-be it India or Colombia.

time-read
2 minutos  |
November 2024
THE INTELLIGENT READS
Entrepreneur magazine

THE INTELLIGENT READS

Hardika Shah founded Kinara Capital in 2011 with the mission to address the acute credit gap in the micro-small-medium-enterprises (MSME) sector in India, by providing fast and flexible business capital to small business entrepreneurs. Despite operating in highly competitive and tough market of collateral free loans, Kinara Capital has been steadily growing in Hardika's leadership. In conversation with Entrepreneur, Hardika shares insights on her favourite books.

time-read
1 min  |
November 2024
THE CURSE OF GROWING TOO FAST
Entrepreneur magazine

THE CURSE OF GROWING TOO FAST

FAIRE is a platform for small businesses, but it grew big the wrong way-almost becoming a $12 billion wreck. Here's how it fixed the problem, and why you should think twice before skyrocketing.

time-read
10+ minutos  |
November 2024
There's No Perfect Answer
Entrepreneur magazine

There's No Perfect Answer

I worked the same job for 19 years. I hated it, but it paid the bills. Then, in 2017, I entertained an exciting but terrifying question: Could I be an entrepreneur? I wasn't sure, so I needed something that felt like a guarantee. I searched for signs that would feel like a big, clear \"yes!\"

time-read
1 min  |
November 2024
Give Yourself the Gift of Time
Entrepreneur magazine

Give Yourself the Gift of Time

Happy holidays! Emmy Award-winning tech expert Mario Armstrong has five recs to get more hours in the day.

time-read
2 minutos  |
November 2024
How to Become a Main Street Millionaire
Entrepreneur magazine

How to Become a Main Street Millionaire

It started when I bought one little laundromat. Now I have a whole portfolio of small local businesses that bring in tens of millions in revenue a year. Here's why following my playbook could be your ticket to financial freedom-and saving America's local small businesses.

time-read
5 minutos  |
November 2024
Want to Better Serve Your Clients? Become Them.
Entrepreneur magazine

Want to Better Serve Your Clients? Become Them.

As a designer for brands, starting my own product company gave me a dose of humility-and it changed the way I relate to clients.

time-read
3 minutos  |
November 2024
How to Succeed With Gen Z Workers
Entrepreneur magazine

How to Succeed With Gen Z Workers

People often say that younger employees are different. But are they? We asked six business leaders what they've learned, and how their teams thrive.

time-read
2 minutos  |
November 2024