In the previous story, we told you about the forecasting company Good Judgment and its worldwide team of superforecasters. Now it’s time to put them to the test.
Their crystal ball is pretty fancy, based on science and a system that has helped them, outpredict competitors, for 10 years. But posing questions to them requires finesse. That’s because in the land of forecasting, language really matters.
Good Judgment’s CEO, Warren Hatch, remembers the time his team was asked, Will North Korea launch a new multistage missile? “As it turned out, Kim Jong Il pressed the button and it exploded on the pad,” he says. “So did it launch? Well, if you’re a policy or political analyst looking for attempts, yeah. If you’re a defense analyst looking for capability, it did not. So getting the question right, so that you’re forecasting the same thing, is critical.”
Entrepreneur submitted five questions. Hatch’s team helped rewrite them for specificity, and then posted them on Good Judgment Open—a free platform where superforecasters and anyone else can mingle and forecast the future. (You can even try it yourself! Visit gjopen.com.) Our questions prompted immediate debate, and forecasters tinkered with their answers as new information came in. On the following pages, we’ve compiled the results (with some insightful number crunching from Good Judgment’s data scientists).
Here, in the best estimates of some of the world’s top forecasters, is how things will play out.
Will more startups launch in 2022, or fewer?
Esta historia es de la edición December 2021 de Entrepreneur.
Comience su prueba gratuita de Magzter GOLD de 7 días para acceder a miles de historias premium seleccionadas y a más de 9,000 revistas y periódicos.
Ya eres suscriptor ? Conectar
Esta historia es de la edición December 2021 de Entrepreneur.
Comience su prueba gratuita de Magzter GOLD de 7 días para acceder a miles de historias premium seleccionadas y a más de 9,000 revistas y periódicos.
Ya eres suscriptor? Conectar
How to Succeed With Gen Z Workers
People often say that younger employees are different. But are they? We asked six business leaders what they've learned, and how their teams thrive.
There's No Perfect Answer
I worked the same job for 19 years. I hated it, but it paid the bills. Then, in 2017, I entertained an exciting but terrifying question: Could I be an entrepreneur? I wasn't sure, so I needed something that felt like a guarantee. I searched for signs that would feel like a big, clear \"yes!\" Instead, what I found was a tarot card deck.
10 HOTTEST TRENDS for 2025
Want to buy a brand that buzzes? Here's what to know.
BUILD YOUR MONEY MACHINE
A franchise isn't just a franchise. It should be a Money Machine, creating profit even while you're out of the office. Here's how.
The Top Franchises for Veterans
Are you a military vet looking to become a franchisee, or just want to support a brand that supports the troops? Check out these 150 brands.
20 LEADERS WHO ARE DEFINING ENTREPRENEURSHIP TODAY
In a year of disruption, we wanted to know: Whose work will define the years to come? We reviewed hundreds of names and picked 20 leaders across a range of industries and sizes. Meet them on the following pages, and see what it takes to thrive in 2025 and beyond.
How to Become a Main Street Millionaire
It started when I bought one little laundromat. Now I have a whole portfolio of small local businesses that bring in tens of millions in revenue a year. Here's why following my playbook could be your ticket to financial freedom-and saving America's local small businesses.
Want to Better Serve Your Clients? Become Them.
As a designer for brands, starting my own product company gave me a dose of humilityand it changed the way I relate to clients.
I've Been a Publicist for 17 Years.Don't Hire Me.
Entrepreneurs often think they need PR. Most don't. Here's why you're probably better off not hiring someone like me.
The CEO's Advice to the MVP
Kickstarter CEO Everette Taylor knows the formula for a successful launch. NBA champ Jaylen Brown recently launched a shoe and athleisure brand. They have a lot to teach each other.
