‘MANUFACTURING WILL ACCOUNT FOR OVER 20% OF GDP'

While the economy will grow at 7 percent and see a savings-led consumption boom, policy-making and reforms will remain painful

- Sachchidanand Shukla

In his story published in 1819, Washington Irving spoke of a villager Rip Van Winkle who fell asleep and woke up 20 years later. So, if a modern Indian version of Rip Van Winkle were to wake up in 2030, what kind of India would he see? He would certainly miss one of the most historic transformations of one of the most potent and promising economic stories of the past few decades, just like the protagonist of Irving’s story had missed the entire American Revolution.

India a middle-income economy now:

The Indian economy is now the third-largest in the world at $8 trillion in real GDP terms, having grown by 7 percent over the last decade (versus the RoW growth of less than 3 percent and assuming the rupee stays constant at 75 to a dollar from 2024). It remains one of the fastest-growing economies in the world (some African nations are growing rapidly but have relatively low mass). The per capita income is now about $4,643, making it a middle-income economy.

The most populous and also the youngest:

With about 1.5 billion people it is the most populous in the world now. Increased education and awareness on population control has helped lower the projected population growth. India’s population would now peak out by 2040 as against earlier expectations of 2055. The median age in India is about 31 years, well below that in China (about 41 years), making it the largest young country in the world.

Rise of women in the workforce: