Iron ore prices to stay high in 2021: Aussie report

May taper off from next year

Steel Insights Bureau

Iron ore price is forecast to remain well above $100 a ton until late 2021, before easing gradually over subsequent years, ultimately reaching $72 by the end of 2026, the March edition of Australian government’s Resources and Energy Quarterly has said.

The iron ore price surged in December and January, and is now at its highest level since 2011.

Prices have been driven by high demand in China and fears of disrupted supply in Brazil and elsewhere.

Australia’s export volumes are expected to grow from around 900 million tons (mt) in 2020–21 to 1.1 billion tons by 2025–26, as several mines open or expand in Western Australia.

Iron ore prices are holding at the highest level for almost a decade.

Iron ore prices surged in December, lifting from around $115 a ton to over $140 a ton — the highest level since 2011 then averaging over $150 a ton during January 2021 and reaching $170 a ton during parts of February.

“The primary drivers of high iron ore prices are expected to hold throughout 2021. Although Vale has announced plans to expand its capacity significantly, much of the resulting output is not expected to reach seaborne markets for at least two to three years.”

“Prices (and premium prices in particular) have thus remained at near 10 year highs for two months without significant retreat. Prices have been pushed up by consistently high steel production in China, which has been driven by Covid-19 related stimulus measures. These strong demand influences have magnified the impact of lower supply estimates from Vale, which has reduced its production guidance significantly over the past 12 months,” the report said.