THE BJP HAS SET ITSELF A TARGET OF 360 SEATS IN THE 2019 LOK SABHA ELECTIONS. WHICH IS A TWO-THIRDS MAJORITY. IS THAT MISSION IMPOSSIBLE?
THE BJP, A political scientist once observed, is always in election mode. Looking ahead to the general elections of 2019, BJP president Amit Shah has already set an amibitious target of 360 seats, at a meeting of senior party leaders in August. But dissonance on a variety of fronts — the sharp rise in fuel prices, the deepening agrarian crisis, lack of job creation, fallout of shifts in economic policy and the perceived negligence of state governments on the law and order front — has cast a shadow over “Mission 360”.
Shah’s stated gameplan is to focus on winnable seats and mitigate anti-incumbency in BJPruled states. The unstated strategy involves dealing with the recent red-flagging of the NDA government’s performance by none other than the RSS and leveraging the continuing dominance of regional forces in the south and east. Bold strategic moves on both these fronts are expected in the next 18 months, aimed not merely at retaining the current tally of 338 for the NDA, but improving on it.
Prima facie, it’s a tough challenge. In 2014, the BJP won more than 90 per cent of the seats it contested in the HIndi belt and the west. It will be difficult to achieve this once more. Also, given the anti-incumbency factor, can the BJP repeat its 100 per cent score in Gujarat (26 seats), Rajasthan (25), Delhi (7), Uttarakhand (5), Himachal Pradesh (4) and Goa (2)? Likewise, can it pull off another round of spectacular victories in Uttar Pradesh (71 of 80), Madhya Pradesh (27 of 29), Chhattisgarh (10 of 11) and Jharkhand (12 of 14)? The scope for improvement in Karnataka (17 of 28), Assam (7 of 14) and Haryana (7 of 10) is also limited.
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