The world’s largest elections decoded by India’s top pollsters.
We probably say this before every election, and we are going to say it again for the 2019 Lok Sabha one: “This could be the most important election of our lifetime.” But in our four decades of observing polls, we don’t recall ever seeing the level of interest as there is in the outcome of this one. We highlight, here, some key signals, indicators and trends to look out for, while tracking this big election.
1 Will 2019 be all about anti-incumbency?
In our analysis of big and medium-sized states, in the period 1977–2002, 70 per cent of governments were thrown out by angry, dissatisfied voters. However, this has changed over the last 20 years. To put it simply, the anti-incumbency era is over. India is now going through what can be called a ‘50:50 era’: Incumbents face a 50:50 chance of being re-elected. Governments that perform are voted back; those that do not deliver are voted out. The angry voter has given way to a wiser, more mature voter. The underlying probability of governments being re-elected has risen from 30 to 50 per cent. This may come as a relief to many ruling state governments as well as to the Central government.
2 Will the next Lok Sabha MPs [Members of Parliament] be young like Indian voters?
Today, almost 60 per cent of Indian voters are young—between the ages of 18 and 40. But only 15 per cent of MPs are between 25 and 40 years old. This means 85 per cent of MPs are of a different generation from the majority of voters. And it’s a widening age gap! In the recent past, the BJP [Bharatiya Janata Party] and its allies have had g reater suppor t among young voters.
3 Expect 2019 to be the ‘election of the women of India’.
Esta historia es de la edición May 2019 de Reader's Digest India.
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Esta historia es de la edición May 2019 de Reader's Digest India.
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