historians are good forecasters. They are good not because they possess some original insight into the future but because they are smart in their choice of time horizon: instead of speculating about life over the next few months, they prefer to predict the distant future. It buys them more degrees of freedom and less oversight. This is because humans tend to overestimate change in the short term but vastly underestimate change in the long run.
So, taking a leaf out of the historian’s playbook, let me try my hand not at predicting where we will be at the end of 2021, but rather the world of 2030. What could happen in ten years?
Space travel, for one. SpaceX will be the world’s largest company in 2030, rivalled by Amazon’s space spin-off. A permanently settled colony will be operational on Mars. Don’t expect large numbers of inhabitants yet, though. SpaceX and their BRIC equivalents will have small settlements inhabited by geologists, biologists, engineers and psychologists, building a template for a future society. We will see the first tentative steps towards Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos’ dream to outsource all heavy industry to space.
But space won’t only be about life beyond Earth. Space technologies could reduce the impact of natural disasters and connect those in remote parts of the world to high-speed internet. A new report by the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs (Unoosa) is adamant that spacetech is key to achieve the UN’s ambitious sustainable development goals by 2030.
Esta historia es de la edición 21 January 2021 de Finweek English.
Comience su prueba gratuita de Magzter GOLD de 7 días para acceder a miles de historias premium seleccionadas y a más de 9,000 revistas y periódicos.
Ya eres suscriptor ? Conectar
Esta historia es de la edición 21 January 2021 de Finweek English.
Comience su prueba gratuita de Magzter GOLD de 7 días para acceder a miles de historias premium seleccionadas y a más de 9,000 revistas y periódicos.
Ya eres suscriptor? Conectar
THE HEALTH OF SA'S MEDICAL SCHEMES
As the Covid-19 pandemic abates, finweek takes a look at the financial performance of some of the largest players.
The effect of Gilbertson's departure
With Ntsimbintle Holdings now the major shareholder of Jupiter Mines, it could change SA’s manganese industry.
Making money from music
Why investors are increasingly drawn to the music industry.
Conviction is key
Sandy Rheeder plays a critical role in Mukuru’s mission to open up financial services to the emerging consumer market in Africa through tailor-made technology solutions and platforms.
The post-pandemic toolkit
How CFOs can use technology to support growth.
Big city living exodus
Mini cities like Waterfall City and Steyn City are redefining city-style apartment living.
Big compact, big value
Handsome, with a hefty level of standard specification, the roomy Haval Jolion compact crossover is a great value proposition.
On barriers to entry
There are various ways in which a company or sector can achieve competitive dominance. They usually make for good investments.
Fear and greed in one index
To buck the trend, when markets are hot or cold, is a tough thing to do. However, it can deliver solid returns.
Africa's largest data centre facility coming soon
Vantage Data Centers plans to invest over R15bn for its first African data centre facility in Attacq’s Waterfall City.
