Brexit: Conundrums

No one really knows what will happen in the next 15 months to aviation stakeholders after the UK leaves the European Union in March 2019.

The Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA) recently held a roundtable at its global aviation summit on the woes of Brexit. Here is an excerpt from that roundtable.

Sixteen months after the June 2016 Brexit referendum, nobody in the UK government or EU can say anything at all about the details of what will happen to aviation after the UK leaves the EU in March 2019.

A range of outcomes is possible, but it will be a disaster if no replacement for the existing traffic rights regime is negotiated before the UK leaves the EU in Mar-2019. It could also be a disaster if the UK's participation in EASA does not continue. So far at least there has been no move to find a solution.

The best possible outcome on market access would be keeping the status quo — an outcome favoured by the large majority of industry stakeholders (although some European legacy airlines expect an opportunity to limit competition from UK airlines).

However, that would appear only to be the best likely outcome, with a lesser result much more likely. It is still impossible to say how a positive outcome can be achieved, given the UK's rejection of the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice and freedom of movement.