THE LACK OF KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THE TRUE number of COVID-19 positive cases in any country or region seems to be the elephant in the room in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The severity of any epidemic has two aspects: one, how infectious or contagious the causative pathogen—in this case, the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2—of the disease is; and, two, how dangerous it is; that is, how many in a cohort group of COVID-19 patients the disease will kill, and equivalently, what the chances are that a person who becomes positive for the virus will eventually die.
A measure of the first is given by a parameter called the Basic Reproduction Number, denoted by R0 (pronounced “R-nought”), which is the number of people that an infected person is likely to transmit the infection to. In a new and growing epidemic, R0 is usually greater than 1; that is, one person is likely to infect more than one person, and the secondary infected persons will each go on to infect R0 more number of persons, leading to an exponential growth in the number of infected persons.
R0 is not a fixed number; it is a dynamic parameter that can be brought down by reducing the chances of the infection being transmitted from person to person by measures such as physical distancing among people, hygienic practices such as regular washing of hands, isolation of infected persons, self-quarantine and so on. Once R0 becomes less than 1, the infection spread will decline and eventually die out. Scientists estimate R0 by constructing models of transmission of infection in a given social setting.
Esta historia es de la edición May 08, 2020 de FRONTLINE.
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How Not To Handle An Epidemic
The lockdowns were meant to buy time to put in place appropriate health measures and contain the coronavirus’ spread, but they have failed to achieve the objective and heaped immense misery on the marginalised sections of society. India is still in the exponential phase of the COVID-19 infection and community transmission is a reality that the government refuses to accept.
Tragedy on foot
As the COVID-19-induced lockdown cuts the ground beneath their feet in Tamil Nadu, thousands of migrant workers are trudging along the highway to the relative safety of their upcountry homes.
Sarpanchs as game changers
Odisha manages to keep COVID-19 well under control because of the strong participation of panchayati raj institutions and the community at the grass-roots level under the leadership of Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik.
Scapegoating China
As the COVID-19 death rate spikes and the economy tanks in the United States, Donald Trump and his advisers target China and the World Health Organisation with an eye to winning the forthcoming presidential election.
New worries
Kerala’s measured approach to the pandemic and lockdown has yielded results. But it still has to grapple with their huge economic impact on its economy, which it feels the Centre’s special financial relief package does little to alleviate.
No love lost for labour
Taking advantage of the lockdown and the inability of workers to organise protests, many State governments introduce sweeping changes to labour laws to the detriment of workers on the pretext of reviving production and boosting the economy.
Capital's Malthusian moment
In a world that needs substantial reorienting of production and distribution, Indian capital is resorting to a militant form of moribund neoliberalism to overcome its current crisis. In this pursuit of profit, it is ready and willing to throw into mortal peril millions whom it adjudicates as not worth their means—an admixture of social Darwinism born of capital’s avarice and brutalism spawned by Hindutva. .
Understanding migration
When governments and their plans are found to be blatantly wanting in addressing reverse migration, exercises such as the Ekta Parishad’s survey of migrant workers throughout India can be useful to work out creative long-lasting solutions.
Waiting for Jabalpur moment
The Supreme Court’s role in ensuring executive accountability during the ongoing lockdown leaves much to be desired. Standing in shining contrast is the record of some High Courts.
An empty package
The Modi regime, which has been unable to control the COVID-19 infection, restore economic activity and provide relief to millions exposed to starvation, trains its sights on Indian democracy, making use of the panic generated by fear and a lockdown that forecloses paths of resistance.
