A Swing State in the Time of American Disruption

Some future Shakespeare may well be tempted to refer to the ‘Ides of June’ while reflecting on the dramatic events last month.

- Shyam Saran

Soon after the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, we had two deeply contrasting ima ges on our television screens. One was the deliberate US disruption of the G-7 summit in Toronto (June 7-9, 2018), with Donald Trump insulting his Canadian hosts, repeating his dire threats of penal tariffs against his western allies and, even more provocatively, recommending that Russia, drummed out in 2014 after its occupation of Crimea, be invited back to the grouping. Having left the western alliance in tatters, Trump then proceeded to a Made-for-TV summit with North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, in Singapore on June 12, displaying warmth and friendly feeling in sharp contrast to the grim images of the previous few days in Toronto. If the Chinese were celebrating the likely demise of the western-dominated global order—even if they were unenthusiastic about a pesky vassal breaking bread with a dangerous rival—they were quickly brought down to earth by the American announcement of penal tariffs on Chinese exports. Xi Jinping being Trump’s ‘good friend’ did not apparently stand in the way of delivering a few painful swipes at the aspiring superpower. And soon thereafter, the icon of right-wing belligerence, US National Security Advisor John Bolton, met Russian president Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin on June 26, 2018, putting in place a US-Russia summit at Helsinki in July.

Is there a method to all this madness?