Can India Be The Vishwaguru?

War and peace result from political choices. As the Ukraine war inches towards a year, here are three possible scenarios of its future course

One of the critical questions of O 2023 is whether the war in Ukraine will end this year. It was an avoidable war. When Leonid Kuchma was president of Ukraine from 1994 to 2004, he balanced relations with Russia and the West. Viktor Yushchenko, who succeeded him from 2005 to 2010, pushed Ukraine into the Western camp. His successor Viktor Yanukovych chose the other side of the pendulum, embracing the bear. If Ukraine had declared constitutional neutrality, Russia would not have annexed Crimea in 2014 and if Ukraine had implemented the Minsk-II agreement on Donbass, Russia would not have invaded Ukraine in 2022. Ukraine's lack of political wisdom in rejecting neutrality is not an excuse to absolve Russia of its violation of international law and the 1994 agreement guaranteeing Ukraine's sovereignty and integrity. The war in Ukraine shows that war is a matter of choice. War does not happen merely because of geography, economy, or destiny. War results from the choices leaders make.

If war is a matter of choice, so can be peace. General Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, has advised Ukraine to negotiate a pragmatic solution. The Ukrainian leaders have responded hysterically, the way they did when Henry Kissinger had recommended constitutional neutrality in 2013. Despite the Pentagon's top boss uttering wise words, the United States supplies arms to Ukraine. This has created three possible scenarios for the future of the war in Ukraine.

SCENARIO I: CEASEFIRE AND PEACE PROCESS